"PM Modi should discuss alternative methods to get Turkmenistan natural gas"

Geopolitics

Governance/Geopolitics

07 Jul 2015, 06:46 am Print

On 6 July 2015, Prime Minister Modi commenced his visit to five Central Asian republics. His tour has begun with visits to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, after which he will attend the BRICS and SCO summits in Russia. Following the summit, he will continue his tour to Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Energy security will be the key theme for his visits.

India is scaling-up its nuclear power projects, even as countries such as Japan and Germany have shut down, or are preparing to shut down, nuclear power plants. India aims to increase its share of electricity generated through nuclear energy from 3.5% to 25% by 2050, but it has insufficient reserves of uranium. It requires stable supplies of the fuel from countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia, with whom it has signed deals for supplying uranium.

Pipeline agreements, on the other hand, are more complex. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, which was expected to bring natural gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, has stalled due to India-Pakistan border disputes. Until these disputes are resolved, it is unlikely that the TAPI pipeline project will materialise.

It is necessary for Prime Minister Modi to discuss alternative methods for India to receive natural gas from Turkemenistan. Bringing Turkmenistan’s gas to a port through a pipeline via Iran and then shipping it to India as LNG is only possible when economic sanctions on Iran are lifted.

However, this will be a more expensive route because in addition to setting up pipelines, investments will also be needed to set up LNG terminals and for shipping. Such a project would be counterproductive for Iran – it has the world’s second largest gas reserves and can emerge as a major supplier if sanctions are lifted. Iran’s gas reserves are located in more accessible regions and will likely get to the market before gas from Turkmenistan.

On the renewable energy front, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have significant hydropower potential but insufficient local demand. India can benefit from hydropower imports from these two countries, using a model similar to its partnership with Bhutan – funding hydropower projects and then buying the electricity.

However, India does not have a physical border with either Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan and so power will require transit via Pakistan, putting such a project in the same predicament as TAPI.”

(Amit Bhandari is a fellow for energy and environment studies at foreign policy think tank group Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations)

#Turkmenistan natural gas