For 2015, the early production forecast for maize – a staple food throughout the subregion – stands at about 21.1 million tonnes, some 15 per cent lower than the average for the last five years, FAO noted .
The fall is mostly due to the impact of erratic weather conditions, including the late start of seasonal rains in November, followed by heavy rains that caused flooding, and then a long dry spell in the southern areas of the subregion during February and early March.
“Last year, the subregion saw a bumper harvest, which has made this year’s harvest prospects look even weaker so we have to be cautious until governments, often with the support of FAO, have completed all the assessments in the coming days,” said David Phiri, FAO’s Subregional Coordinator for Southern Africa.
“The carry-over stocks from 2014’s bumper maize crop is expected to partly offset the impact of lower domestic production and somewhat contribute to stabilising national supplies in some countries,” he added.
Malawi and Zambia, the second and third biggest maize producers in the subregion, are also expected to register smaller harvests compared with the 2014 bumper crop. Lower maize harvests are also anticipated in Botswana, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland and Zimbabwe.
The poor outlook is already having some impact on cereal markets. South Africa recorded significant price increases in February – although the rise eased in March following improved rains.